Russia desperately relies on Turkey and China

Nearing the end of January 2015. However, even in 2014 about Russia had a lot of information that has not been digested. Russia’s problems have become so large that there is a question about what will happen to the world economy and international politics.

It all started with the revolution in February 2014

Compared with last year, most experts publish the prospects of Russia and the world in 2015 after a long delay.

If you recall the events of the past year, it all started with the Ukrainian revolution in February.

After that Russia annexed the Crimea, Western countries have imposed economic sanctions against it, Moscow has imposed retaliatory sanctions in eastern Ukraine fighting broke out between the National Guard and militia, there was a debate about whether Russia carried out military intervention or not, was hit by a passenger aircraft, and was organized by the investigation into the tragedy. A year has passed, and as a result of the civil war in Ukraine, killing more than five thousand people.

By conducting multiple negotiations, agreement was reached on a truce, which was then repeatedly violated. Simultaneously with these events since autumn began to decline in oil prices, the end of the year there was a collapse of the ruble.

US President Barack Obama proudly announced that President Putin, the actions of which the country was on the bottom, was not so wise as he had expected; that anti-Russian sanctions are bearing fruit. Obama himself, suffered a crushing defeat in the elections, is still held by the strong dollar.

Undoubtedly, this year the global economy will pull the US economy is, however, is the result of the elimination method. The Chinese economy has also stalled, so the United States won the sole victory.

Some believe that in fact the United States, which calls on Europe and Ukraine to fight against Russia, do not want to quarrel with Moscow. According to the sacked Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel (Chuck Hagel), in the long run for the United States, Russia is the most dangerous enemy, so it is important to avoid unnecessary tension in relations with her. Apparently, these words did not like the boss Hagel.

If the attempt is not to quarrel turns out that the absence of any dialogue, the result is no different from strife. The US has also been criticized on the grounds that surrounded the president no intelligent diplomats. If you hide that fact in the shadow of a favorable economic environment, it is true that economic wealth is vital for democracy.

Global risks: in the first place Europe on the second – Russia, the third – China

Even if the US situation is more or less clear, now all go on about the fact that the crisis of the Russian economy is pernicious not only for Russia itself. It applies to the global economy as a whole. The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth from 3.8% to 3.5%.

If the United States, which refused to quantitative easing, will raise its key interest rate, it is possible that many countries show negative growth. If there is a collapse in Russia, will be dealt a severe blow and the European economy.

However, it was not just Europe. If you go bankrupt Russia is an important energy power, is in danger refuse and other energy countries. These include Brazil, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran. In the end, the situation will result in stagnation of the world economy.

In this case, Ukrainian conflict will go into the category of local problems. A year ago, the media actively discussed the death of even one person, and now most publications do not write anything, even if the victims are estimated at double-digit.

Exit the Ukrainian crisis and anti-Russian sanctions have not been found. Moreover, it can be said that in recent days the situation has only worsened. Influential European politicians continue to swing the global rules and refuse to forgive Russia its actions.

Global rules lies in the fact that, in accordance with the fundamentals of European security can not be changed borders by military force. Russia also violated the rules by connecting Crimea and invaded the eastern part of Ukraine.

However, the danger lies in the fact that not all European countries share a common position on Russia. In a ranking of global risk consulting company Eurasia Group in the first place put it unstable political and economic situation in Europe (second only to Russia are the risks, the third – the slowdown in the Chinese economy).

There are many other reasons for concern: the transition to the deflationary Japanese economy, the re-emergence of the Greek problem, the future of the Ukrainian crisis, Islamic problem. Nevertheless, most of the world is now concerned about the lack of unity in Europe, which is so necessary to solve all these problems.

Western countries are losing confidence

Europe drives into depression.

When this month in the office of the French magazine bombing occurred, prominent politicians participated in a demonstration in support of freedom of speech. Perhaps the essence of this incident lies in the fact that it is necessary to defend this freedom, however, most likely, for many people, the attack was a wake up call that Europe must unite to confront the various dangers.

Analysts point out that shattered three main pillars of the West: the market economy, democracy, and the overwhelming power of the United States. In this regard, we have a situation in which the entire West was losing intellectual self-confidence. When there is such growing fear and mistrust of the outside world, gaining momentum ultra-.

Perhaps the current position with regard to Russia is under a same soil.

Russia’s actions in respect of Ukraine and the terrorist attack in Paris put on a par. And then, and another global conflict with European rules, so the military threat to the independence of the state from another state is seen as a threat to Europe as well as terrorism, which violates the laws and calls into question the freedom of speech.

According to Western and Ukrainian media, the Russian military support for the eastern separatists, and no matter what explanation does not lead the Russian side, NATO and Western countries have all the evidence. Russia’s actions are considered only as a military incursion into the territory of a neighboring state. It turns out that Putin still mourns the Soviet Union and believes that the superpower must always control the surrounding regions …

Hence the conclusion: Putin – the cause of all evil in the world.

Just like Russia and its policy in the works of Tom Clancy (Tom Clancy). Such literary imagination creates the theory that Putin will go to such drastic measures as the creation of a new international tensions to increase in oil prices. All in order to avoid due to the fall of the ruble inflation and a serious decline in living standards of Russians.

The danger will come to naught, and we did not sort out the true intentions of Putin

Russia has its own objections.

If the incorporation of the Crimea is a violation of international law, then why are permissible NATO bombing and further recognition of Kosovo’s independence? Whether justified the illegal overthrow of the government in February? How are democracy and anti-government demonstrations, which were attended by people with swastikas on their clothes, calling to expel from the country of Russia? Is there an understanding of what the fear experienced swastika Crimeans before decided to separate from Ukraine?

All these objections are ignored or Russia, or called fabricated propaganda. Maybe it’s because if Russian statements will contain the truth, can stagger the proud banner of European global rules?

We do not know whether this is the reason for this situation, but in Western publications is rare to find articles that present the facts necessary to predict the future Ukrainian problem. Why at the end of last summer, the National Guard suffered a crushing defeat? Who really killed civilians in eastern Ukraine? Is functioning properly the current government of Ukraine? Can we say that the businessman Poroshenko was elected by a majority of Ukrainians, who did not want to fight anymore, and that it supported the majority of anti-Russian forces?

This does not mean that Russia and its media speak only the truth. Nevertheless, the problem will not be solved if we consider those and other bad. If Western publications will not give clear answers to such questions, most of the readers and do not understand why Putin is in a tough confrontation with the West, and why it has a high rating in Russia.

I’ve written about this before, but what the Russians are in the power of the dictator and listen daily lies, does not mean that they do not know the truth.

More concerned with the fact that, apparently, the Russians have already lost faith in the fact that something can be corrected. They are ready for a protracted war of sanctions until 2017. Russian experts who expressed a balanced opinion without bias towards nationalism, too, seems to have left no hope for the opportunity to correct relations with the US and Europe.

Against the background of confrontation, which may be delayed, the Russian economy is no particular prospects. However, as you know, many experts have expressed different views on the future price of oil, on which depends the Russian economy.

Will the day again, when the oil price exceeds $ 100?

Discussions are continuing in order to bring any benefit to the world economy decline in oil prices, why prices fell when prices rise again to $ 100, and what are the prospects for shale gas revolution in the US.

If we consider the question of supply and demand, then in 2013 supply exceeds demand. But this does not explain why prices fall in two or three times. As the demand itself depends largely on the price, not so easy to calculate the amount of excess supply. Also, no one knows what percentage ratio between actual demand and speculation.

Some economists believe that any change in prices can be attributed to the financial policy of the USA. Nevertheless, it seems to me that this can be explained by the origin of the finance market players.

In this case it is appropriate to recall the comment chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates Daniel Yergin of the completion of the price cycle, which begins and ends in China.

In fact, for ten years, until 2013, 51% of global oil demand fell to one China. Currently, however, from the PRC is difficult to wait for a similar rapid economic growth, as in previous years.

But if oil prices do not rise soon to three-digit number, then this will be bad Russian economy, which depends on oil prices. No one, including the Russian government does not deny the possibility of negative growth in 2015.

If the market will be present such discouraging factors, there is a panic. That’s why there was a collapse of the ruble. Because many do not understand the reasons for what is happening, there is growing concern, and if suddenly someone suddenly starts to move, all follow him.

Many people remember the 1998 default. No matter what was the process and the results, everyone knows that the default was. Compared with the time Russia has foreign currency reserves, but they are rapidly declining. In contrast to the times now private companies, including energy companies, can not be to refinance because of sanctions, a fact that many raises serious concerns.

Europe is concerned, how serious is the damage

I do not think that Russia has really come a default, as will take all necessary measures to avoid it. Moreover, it may change the situation itself. In this case, even if the country is still going to default, something else before that happens, seriously hurt Ukraine. When Europe will draw attention to the fact that not much money poured into Ukraine, they disappear there like a black hole, it will attend to the size of their own prejudice.

However, it should be recognized that regardless of the Ukrainian situation, there is a risk in the fact that many do not know the real situation in the Russian economy. In this sense, Russia is a country for investors, full of risks.

In conclusion, I would like to address the issue a little Russian exploitation of natural resources, as well as transport projects, which are the same as macroeconomics, dependent on oil prices.

A prerequisite for the development of oil and gas fields in Eastern Siberia (this also applies to the US shale projects) were high oil prices: more than $ 70-80 per barrel. The situation with prices suddenly changed, and many began to talk about the possible loss of such projects.

Despite the fact that everyone understands that prices will not keep at the level of 40-50 dollars, in order to decide on the investment required in some measure to understand when prices start to rise again.The fate of these projects depends on whether the stretch a helping hand to China.

If Russia itself will invest in the development, it will incur huge costs. With the participation of China, these costs can be optimized. Nevertheless, Russia is also concerned about the slowdown in China’s economic growth, so she doubted how much you can rely on it.

Was closed project “South Stream”, under which Russia was to supply gas to Europe. We can not say that this is not influenced by the decrease in oil prices, but the main reason is that President Putin has decided to restrict cooperation with the European Union.

Only changes the direction of the gas flow

One of the publications wrote that the project did not take place because in Europe decreased demand for Russian gas. European countries really want to get away from Russian gas dependence, but it is a goal that in the short term will not be able to realize. In addition, demand in Europe fell not only on Russian gas.

You can also argue that abandoning this project, Russia just redirect the gas stream. When this is included in the game Turkey that apparently led to confusion European countries.

When it was announced the closure of the project, many people began to talk about the collapse of Putin’s reputation, however, when it became aware of the new route, they stopped laughing.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not just committed to ensuring that all gas pipelines to Europe (from the Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, and in the near future of the Middle East) passing through Turkey.

In the East, China, in the West, Turkey: perhaps in this respect, there are a lot of weaknesses, but thanks to the cooperation with the Turkish and Chinese leaders, President Putin, apparently, began to create the basis for a new international policy. Perhaps we do not assume how large scale changes in policy.

You can comment this article, but links are not allowed.

Оставить комментарий